Drake equation applied to dating
The best measure of this is the ability to communicate by radio waves. What is the likelihood that such technologies will be invented?
What percentage of intelligent civilizations will never invent them, or, having invented them (at least theoretically), decide never to use any with sufficient power to broadcast radio waves out into space.
The second function, f(P), refers to the proportion of stars that have planets around them.
Drake reasoned that life could not evolve without a planet for it to be based on, orbiting a star capable of supporting life with light and heat.
If that weren’t the case, life simply wouldn’t have time to evolve far before one or another stellar or natural disaster simply wiped it all out.
So, rather than taking Townsend’s figure, it seems appropriate to assume that only 10% of life-supporting planets will actually develop intelligent life. The third life variable, f(C), estimates what proportion of otherwise intelligent life will eventually go on to develop advanced technology.
Everywhere the right set of numbers turns up, intelligent life will emerge.
All of these factors go into making the climate and the surface of the Earth relatively stable.The Drake Equation, also known as the Green Bank Equation after the 1961 conference where it was first presented, is a formula created by American physicist Frank Drake to estimate the number of intelligent alien civilizations which exist in the Milky Way and which, given sufficient technology and time, humanity might one day be able to communicate with.Although it takes the form of a mathematical equation, it is important to note that Drake never intended it to be solved precisely.In a young galaxy, new star births can number in the thousands per year.In a middle-aged galaxy like our own, however, the Max Planck Institute for Astronomy says that only about one Sun-like star (not too large or small to support life) is born per year.